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Dr. Hiram Levy, NOAA
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Dr. Hiram Levy, NOAA
Title: "Climate Change Science Program: Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.2 or Climate vs. Air Quality?" Abstract: By year 2100, "IPCC" projected decreases in sulfate aerosol and increases in black carbon aerosol contribute a significant portion of the simulated A1B surface air warming relative to the year 2000; 0.2oC (southern hemisphere), 0.4oC globally, 0.6oC (northern hemisphere), 1.5-3oC (wintertime Arctic), and 1.5-2oC (~40% of the total) in the summertime United States. These changes are also responsible for a significant decrease in central US late-summer root-zone soil water and precipitation. These changes in short-lived air pollutants produce a global average increase in radiative forcing of ~1 W/m2; over East Asia it exceeds 5 W/m2. However, the resulting regional patterns of surface temperature warming are uncorrelated to the forcing pattern (correlation coefficient of -0.172) and similar to the temperature patterns for well-mixed greenhouse gases (global pattern-correlation coefficient of 0.8) with the strongest summertime warming occurring over the continental US, Mediterranean Sea and southern Europe. It should be noted that the projections of future pollution emissions are extremely uncertain, particularly looking out to 2100. April 24, 2008 3:30 pm - 4:30 pm 2424 SRB |
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